Trends
Page Last updated 09-04-2009
The literature suggests that a combination of increased awareness, improved case finding and available support has caused the estimated prevalence to grow steadily since the 1970s. Using available information regarding current population levels, future population trends and available information about prevalence rates, it is possible suggest the possible numbers of adults living in Newcastle with ASD up to 2031. This information is detailed in the table below. However, it is important to remember that this data is, at best, a rough approximation.
The above table illustrates the administrative prevalence of ASD in Newcastle, as recorded through Special Education Needs statements, for Children and Young People. Administrative prevalence is increasing although it is unclear whether this is due to actual increased prevalence or improved detection. Although the data shows a steady increase in prevalence figures as ages increase, the drop between ages of 12-16 requires further investigation. It is expected that prevalence would increase as ages increase as ASD is sometimes not diagnosed until the teenage years.
Information about the number of children and young people in Newcastle known to Children’s Services provides a useful insight into possible future trends relating to the prevalence of ASD.
The data focuses on children and young people, aged 0-16 years of age, who require school based interventions to assist with learning difficulties and figures suggest a ASD prevalence rate in this group of 0.43% (in 2008). Although the prevalence rate is lower than that of the national average , the rate in 2004 was 0.02%, indicating a significant increase in the numbers of children and young people diagnosed with ASD in Newcastle which, in time will impact on the numbers of adults in Newcastle with ASD.
There are currently 65 adults with an ASD and an IQ below 70 who are known to Newcastle Adult Services, of these 64 people are receiving support of some kind . This indicates a prevalence rate of 0.003%. This is substantially below the Newcastle projection of 2,245 (0.98% prevalence rate) above and indicates that there is likely to be a group of adults with ASD unknown to Newcastle City Council who may need support.