Population

Current Situation

The latest (2007) estimate of the resident population in the City is 271,600. This compares with 275,000[1] who are registered with GPs in the city. This comparison has significance for the JSNA as the City Council is responsible for providing services to its residents whereas the PCT are responsible for providing services to all those registered with a city GP, irrespective of their address. However the significance would be greater if the two figures were not so closely aligned.

Up until 2001, the city's population was declining. During the 1970s and 1980s the city's industrial base shrank without being adequately replaced and high levels of unemployment caused many to move away. In forty years, from 1961 to 2001, the city's population fell by a fifth. However the population began to level out from 2001 due to the impact of steady economic growth from the mid 1990s. Since 2005, it has been growing largely due to international migration as a result of the EU enlargement, with the expectation that this growth will continue.

Information relating to the population of Newcastle by ward is available here.

Source: 2006-based Sub National Population Projections, ONS

Future Projections

According to ONS projections, the total population is set to grow at a steady rate over the next 3 to 5 years. They indicate a rise of 5,200 (1.9%) from 2006 to 2011 and a further 3,800 (1.4%) from 2011 to 2016, by which point the population is expected to stand at 279,500[2]. This compares with a percentage increase of 1.6% over the period 2001 to 2006[3]. These figures are based on projections that recent trends in the city relating to the number of births and international migration will continue, see below for details.

Source: 2006-based Sub National Population Projections, ONS

[1] NHS North of Tyne, January 2008

[2] 2006-based Sub National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics © 2008

[3] ONS  Mid Year Estimates

Age

Current Situation

12.3% of the Newcastle population is aged between 20 and 24, reflecting the large student population at the city's two universities.

There are 62,800 children and young people aged 0-19 living in Newcastle, 23% of the population. Since 2001, the numbers of children and young people has reduced year on year, from 24.4% to 23.2% in 2006. The 5-9 and 10-14 age groups show the biggest drop, reflecting a fall in birth rates in the late 20th century.

30% of the city's population is aged 50 and over. Of these 83,400 older people (defined by Government as those aged 50 and over), 36,100 (43%) are under pensionable age (60 for women and 65 for men), 26,600 (32%) from pensionable age to 74, and 20,600 (25%) aged 75 and over[1].

In terms of age structure, Newcastle's geography can be categorized as follows:

• Those areas with a concentration of younger adults which include North Jesmond, South Jesmond, South Heaton, Ouseburn, Westgate and Wingrove i.e. those areas close to the city centre that attract large numbers of students.
• Those areas with a concentration of older people which include Denton, Newburn, Westerhope and Parklands. These areas tend to be further away from the city centre, in the outer west and north of the city.
• Those areas with a more mixed age profile.

Ward level age profiles are available here.

Future Projections

Along with the rest of England, the population in Newcastle is ageing with 83,400 people aged 50 and over. By 2011, this figure will have risen to 86,200 according to ONS projections, and to 90,000 by 2016. Of the component age groups, in the short term from 2006 to 2011, significant increases are expected for the population aged 50 to 54 (9.7%), 60 to 64 (18.1%) and for those aged 85 and over (10.9%). Accordingly, in the long term from 2011 to 2016, increases are projected for the 55 to 59 age bracket (10.5%), the 65 to 69s (19.0%), and the over 85s (13.1%).  For more information read the Older People Section

Increases are also expected amongst the young adult population, particularly in the 25 to 35 group. From 2006 to 2011, the 20 to 35 age group will rise significantly, with a marked rise of 25.5% in the 25 to 29s. In the longer term, projected growth in the 25 to 40 bracket, in particular amongst the 30 to 34s, would suggest the retention of newcomers in their late twenties. However anecdotal evidence suggests that migration flows from Eastern Europe, particularly from Poland, may now be reversing, so it remains to be seen whether international migration, particularly from the EU Accession countries, will continue to have an effect on Newcastle's population in later years.

The number of 0-4s will also rise in both the short and long term. From a baseline of 14,200 in 2006, numbers will increase steadily to 16,300 in 2011. The rate of increase is projected to slow from 2013 but the age group will continue to grow to 17,200 in 2016. Corresponding increases are projected in the long term for 5-9 year olds. Older children and young people, aged 10-19, will decrease in numbers until 2016 when this trend begins to reverse for the 10 to 14 age group.

The numbers of 40-44s is set to decline significantly over the next ten years. In five years time this group will have decreased by 12.7% from 18,900 to 16,500; in the next ten years, by 16.4% to 13,800.

[1] ONS Mid Year Estimates

Gender

Of the 270,500 people living in Newcastle, 51% are female and 49% male. Taking children and young people, the figures reverse with 51% of those aged 0-19 in the city being male and 49% female. This reflects the lower life expectancy of men in the city, and national trends more generally. Women make up 54% of the population aged 50 and over, and 58.9% of the population aged 65 and over. In the oldest sections of our population, 75 and over, this figure rises to 63%. There are considerably more men, however in the 25 to 30 age bracket, with approximately 115 men to every 100 women[1].

[1] ONS 2006 Mid Year Estimates

Births

Current Situation

Between 1996 and 2004, Newcastle's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) fell by 5.9%. Newcastle has the lowest fertility rate of all the Tyne and Wear districts and TFR is well below the national average of 1.70 at 1.52.

Between 1997 and 2005, the childbearing population in Newcastle (women aged 18 - 44) rose by 3.6%. Despite this increase, the fertility rate of women in the city has remained low reflecting variations in fertility rates between the different sections of the child bearing population. The rate amongst women aged between 18 and 34 fell by 10.4% between 2001 and 2005, reflecting a propensity perhaps to delay childbearing in favour of career development amongst women of this age. Undoubtedly the expansion of the city's two universities has also had an impact. Newcastle has relatively high fertility rates on the other hand for women aged 35-44, which suggests further evidence that women aged 18-34 are postponing child-birth. However these births only account for around 14% of the total number of births, explaining the overall decline the city is experiencing. The fertility rates for young women, aged 18 and under, have dropped in the city by 5% since 2001[1].

Since 2003 however, there has been a recent and unexplained return to an excess of births over deaths. The number of births leapt from 2,920 in 2005, to 3,150 in 2006 and from this 2006 baseline, Newcastle is projected to experience a 12.8% rise in the number of births by 2016[2].

Future Projections

Recent increases in the number of births are set to continue in the short and long term. From a baseline of 3103 in 2006, the numbers of babies born will rise to 3,300 in 2011; and 3,600 in 2016 when it will begin to level out.  For more information read the pregnancy and maternal health section.

[1] Health and Population Change in Tyne and Wear 2005, Tyne and Wear Research and Information, March 2007

[2] 2006-based sub-national population projections

Ethnicity

Current Situation

Between 1991 and 2001, Newcastle's black and minority ethnic (BME) community grew by 60% to nearly 6.9% of the total population. In 2001, the biggest BME group was Asian or Asian British, comprising 4.4% of the population, (some wards have higher Asian population e.g. 21.9% in Wingrove), 1% of the population was mixed ethnicity, 0.7% Chinese and 0.4% Black or Black British[1]. 6.9% is still below the national figure (9.1%) but this will have grown since 2001, with significant migration from EU accession states.

The latest school census information shows that of the school population in Newcastle (37,030), 16% are from black and ethnic minorities and 14% have a first language which is other than English[2]. Of the people aged 55 to 64 living in Newcastle, 3.6% are from BME groups compared to 3.1% for the 65-74 age bracket. This figure drops significantly to 1.46% for people aged 75-84 and only 47 people in Newcastle are from black and ethnic minorities and aged 85 and over, 0.9% of the total population in this age bracket[3].

A breakdown of ethnicity by ward is available here

[1] Newcastle City Council, mid year estimates based on 2001 Census.

[2] Newcastle School Census, January 2007

[3] ONS, Ethnic group of older people by age group, mid-2005

Disability

Current Situation

The 2001 Census records 55, 962 which equates to 21.6% of the population has having a Limiting Long Term Illness (LLTI).  In some wards (Walker) the levels of LLTI is as high has 30.9%. 

The 2001 Census records that 30,740 people which equates to 11.8% of the population reported they were not in good health (those whose health over the last 12 months, has on the whole, has not been good).

According to local authority registers 4274 have a sensory impairment which includes people who are deaf, have a hearing impairment, are blind, have a visual impairment or who have dual sensory impairments. 

1,823 are registered in Newcastle as blind or partially sighted, however applying  national estimates to Newcastle's population suggests an estimated actual population of 3,900 people with low vision.

A breakdown of self assessed health and limiting long-term illness by ward is available here

Future Projections

The over 65 population in Newcastle is expected to increase from 42,400 to 49,600 by 2025.  Of this population 22,218 have a limiting long term illness and this is projected to increase by 6% to 23,567 by 2015 and by 21% to 26,902 by 2025.  However, the greatest increase will be seen in the 85+ age group whereas those with a limiting long term illness is predicted to increase by 16% to 4,129 and by 50% to 5,361 by 2025.  Source: Projecting Older People Information System 

Of the population aged 18-64, in 2008 it was estimated that 16,364 people were living with a moderate or severe physical disability and overall it is not anticipated for this level to change markedly.   However, there is a marked change in the 25 - 34 age group where it is predicted there will be an increase by 22% by 2015 reducing to 17% by 2025.  Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information System  

The Department of Health suggests that 20% of 65 year olds and over have a visual impairment in both eyes and would benefit from Low vision service, this would equate to over 9,000 people in Newcastle in 2020.

Religion and belief

In 2001, 70.64% of people in Newcastle reported their religion / belief as Christian. Islam had the second largest number of followers at 3.63% of the population. 16% of people said they had no religion.

Sexual Orientation

It is estimated that between 13,500 and 18,900 people in Newcastle would identify as Lesbian, Gay or Bi-Sexual based on Government estimates of between 5 and 7 percent of the population. These estimates are accepted by Stonewall but no full survey/census has yet been completed.

Migration

Current Situation

Like many other parts of England and Wales, Newcastle's population was given a significant boost from 2004 as a result of international migration from the EU accession states. International migration continues to support population growth in the city, with 4,500 new NI registrations recorded for non UK nationals in the city 2006-2007. Polish people were the biggest migrant group to come in to the city, accounting for around a fifth of all international migrants that year, followed by migrants from India, and China[1]. According to ONS Mid Year estimates, this has led to a net increase in international migration of 4,260 from mid 2004 to mid 2006.

Source: New National Insurance registrations in Newcastle in 2006-07 by Nation of Origin

Increases in international migration have been offset slightly however by a net fall in internal migration to and from other parts of the country. In the same period, 30,460 people moved elsewhere in Britain and only 28,930 came in to the city. The lack of affordable housing is a key cause. Net migration flows to and from Newcastle upon Tyne, based on data from the NHSCR on patient registrations, reveal a loss to the city of around 1,860 people each year, with the majority going to North Tyneside and Gateshead. Between 1999 and 2004, the city incurred an average net loss of 1,000 people each year to North Tyneside and 400 to Gateshead[2]. 

The Centre of Urban and Regional Studies (CURS) analysed migration within the region as part of the report into changing housing markets in the North East. The results show that Newcastle is losing population across all age groups. Meanwhile analysis by Tyne and Wear Research and Information of the 2001 census migration statistics indicates that Newcastle parents of children aged 0-15 are more likely to move out of the district than their comparable group in other Tyne and Wear districts. Newcastle out-movers are also much more economically active than Newcastle residents, around 18% percentage points higher - 76.7% of Newcastle out-migrants are economically active, compared with 58.5% of Newcastle residents[3]. However the net loss through internal migration is diminishing year on year: In 2001, it was 1,440; in 2005 it had dropped to 630[4].

Future Projections

In the short term, migration from other parts of the UK is likely to increase. Universities estimate a further 6,000 student beds will be required in line with their growth plans. Equally however, movement to elsewhere in the UK is set to rise, but from a higher baseline and at a slightly faster pace, leading to an escalating net loss overall.  Whilst inward migration is set to stabilize in the longer term, rises in outward migration are likely to continue, widening the gap.

International migration into the city is projected to peak in 2008 and remain at this level for the short and long term. Continued migration is one way to maintain Newcastle's working age population, in which case 2,100 migrants would need to move here each year. However whether current levels are sustainable considering recent anecdotal evidence of migration flows reversing, is yet to be determined. International migration out of the city is expected to show moderate increases over the next ten years[5].

[1] Department for Work and Pensions

[2] Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) for the North East, Technical Background Paper No.4 Housing

[3] TWRI, 2005, Migration Tables for Housing Planning, Unpublished, Tyne and Wear Research and Information

[4] ONS Mid Year Estimates.

[5] 2006-based sub-national population projections.